Half-year blues...
With June out of the way, it’s been wall-to-wall coverage this past week of the ragged market conditions we’ve endured in the first half of 2022.
If you want a solid summary of all the moving parts over the past six months, this summary by MSCI is a good start: Markets in Focus: Half-Time – Keeping it Real and Defensive. That post does touch on factor performances, but if you want a deeper factor perspective, check out this update from Nicholas Rabener at Factor Research: Factor Olympics Q2 2022 (no surprise that value has been the big winner in this environment).
On the subject of value, if you’re looking for signs of optimism, this article from Novel Investor takes an upbeat look at how value opportunities emerge from market pull-backs: The Upside of Bear Markets. Plus, this note from Nick Maggiulli (Of Dollars and Data) is a reminder of why dollar (or pound) cost averaging is such an important concept in both bull and bear markets: In Defense of Dollar Cost Averaging
Elsewhere, Aswath Damodaran offered some useful perspectives on why market history may well be a guide to what might lie in store from here: Risk Capital and Markets: A Temporary Retreat or Long Term Pull Back? And this post from UK Dividend Stocks reckons the bear market could have a long way to go yet: The S&P 500 CAPE says this bear market could have a long way to go.
If you fancy going really deep on this stuff, you might want to take a look at this Athenarium article that looks through the lens of Benoit Mandelbrot (the mathematician who discovered geometric fractals) to make sense of it all: The Misbehaviour of Markets — Benoit Mandelbrot on Fractals in Nature and Finance
Analysts, wealth and portfolios
Away from market malaise, it seems like a new wave of Covid is starting to cause some unease in parts of Europe (just as the summer holiday season kicks off). On that subject, Joaquin Klement (Klement on Investing) picked up on research looking at how effective sell-side analysts are when they’re working from home. It turns out that while productive time rises (without the commute) the lack of office attendance and no direct access to management means the quality of their work drops: Working harder or working smarter; what helps analysts?
Meanwhile, Morgan Housel’s latest post covers the interesting idea that becoming wealthier is actually a better feeling than actually having wealth: Wealth vs. Getting Wealthier
On portfolios, Occam Investing looks at how applying ‘modern portfolio theory’ to portfolio construction almost always leads down the route of passive investing: Modern Portfolio Theory: Part 2. On the same subject Larry Swedroe took a dive into recent research into boosting returns with the use of multi-factor strategies in portfolios: Combining Factors in Multifactor Portfolios.
Podcasts: Ashvin Chhabra, Jim O‘Shaughnessy and Guy Spier
The best podcast I listened to this week was this conversation between Ted Seides (Capital Allocators podcast) and Ashvin Chhabra: The Aspirational Investor. Ashvin is a mathematician and huge investing intellect who runs the family office investing funds on behalf of Jim Simons and his wife, Marilyn. Simons, of course, is the legendary founder of elite quant hedge fund, Renaissance Technologies. It’s fascinating to hear how Chaabra went from aspiring physicist to market-beating investor, and all the models he devised along the way.
Meanwhile, the always inspiring James O’Shaughnessy was on the We Study Billionaires podcast: The Next Investing Revolution w/ Jim O'Shaughnessy. The Excess Returns podcast covered some of the key drivers behind the current bear market: The Average Investor's Guide to the Current Bear Market. And in case you missed it, here’s a conversation between Mary McDougall of the Investors’ Chronicle and well known value investor, Guy Spier: Our brains didn’t evolve for a modern economy.
Selected blogs
The Worst First Half Ever
The Irrelevant Investor
Should you take a private equity approach to small caps?
Fund research from Trustnet
These 3 Are the Worst Performing Tech Stocks on the S&P 500 In 2022
MyWallSt Blog
Best and worst funds of 2022 so far, as just 6% make a profit
Investing | Mail Online
Trite Buffett quotes that hit me, 22H1 edition: discipline and saying no
Yet Another Value Blog
Is Bitcoin Setting Up For A Big Move? [DIRTY DOZEN]
Macro Ops: Unparalleled Investing Research
Should Fund Investors Pay Lower Fees for Making Long-Term Commitments
Behavioural Investment
Don’t stop buying now!
The Evidence-Based Investor
The Grind
Share Knowledge
Monday Macro plus Investment Ideas
David Stevenson's Adventurous Investor Newsletter
The Worst 6 Months Ever For Financial Markets
A Wealth of Common Sense
June / Half Year update.
Compound Income - Blog
The Economic Problem with LIV Golf
Pragmatic Capitalism
Migrant
No Mercy / No Malice
Small Caps Live Weekly Summary
Small Caps Life
Mid Year 2022 Portfolio Review
Clark Street Value
Spotify, Netflix, and Aggregation
Stratechery by Ben Thompson
Selected podcasts
Tim Ranzetta: 'Financial Education Positively Impacts Almost All Financial Behaviors'
The Long View
Wes Discusses Merging Education, Investing, and the Marines w/ Lagniappe Podcast
Alpha Architect Podcast
MI190: Central Banking 101 w/ Joseph Wang
Millennial Investing - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Jess Lee - Designing Investment Products - [Invest Like the Best, EP.284]
Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Why Warren Buffett Is Buying More OXY
Podcasts | The Acquirer's Multiple®
REI129: Multifamily and Opportunity Zones w/ Barrett Linburg
Millennial Investing - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Talk Your Book: The Bull Market in Stupidity
Animal Spirits Podcast
Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?
The Investor's Podcast Network
671 - Why Different Pairs Move In Different Ways
The Trading Coach Podcast
SPECIAL: Vitaliy Katsenelson on the Stoic ”Operating System”, Painful Experiences in Investing
This Week in Intelligent Investing
199 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – July 3rd, 2022
Top Traders Unplugged
Talking Trusts: Weekly Review with Simon Elliott (02 Jul 2022)
Money Makers
A Checklist For Traders
Swing Trading the Stock Market
Conor Maguire's "Deep Breath, Deep Value" thesis on SOL Group
Yet Another Value Podcast
The Average Investor's Guide to the Current Bear Market
Excess Returns
The MoneyWeek Podcast: nuggets of positivity in an extended bear market
The MoneyWeek Podcast
TWIN PETES INVESTING Podcast no.78 with LIVE in person video & special guest
TWIN PETES INVESTING | Conkers3
Robinhood, No Good
Stock Club
Companies and Markets show: Wise, small-cap bosses, and investment clubs
Investors' Chronicle
Amy Zhang - Identifying Exceptional Potential
Value Investing with Legends
Cash Is Not Trash
What Goes Up
Episode 16: Are office spaces still necessary for companies? With Arpit Gupta
HAWK-EYED
Even when you do succeed, sometimes it pays to try again
Tim Harford
Miners, defence stocks and the return of the pension triple lock
AJ Bell Money & Markets
Paul Millerd — The Pathless Path (EP.112)
Infinite Loops
The Importance of Moats with Mark Lamonica of Morningstar
The Investing for Beginners Podcast - Your Path to Financial Freedom
#426 – The Best of 1H22 – Zeihan, Grantham, Zelman, Bloomstran, Ilmanen, Arnold, Baker, Grice, Valiante & Ariely
Meb Faber Show Podcast